Economists warn that although the Kelly criterion works for generating wealth, it’s still a gamble with pitfalls of its own. For one, it assumes that you know your probability of winning a bet, which can be true in many casino games but less so in fuzzy domains such as the stock market. Also, Kelly asserts that in the coin-toss experiment, you’re most likely to grow your wealth if you keep betting 20 percent of it. But if you have $1 million to your name, it’s perfectly reasonable not to want to gamble $200,000 on a coin flip. At some point, you will need to price in your personal level of risk aversion and adjust your fiscal decisions to respect your own preferences.
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You might object that this strategy makes money only if you eventually call the right color in roulette, whereas I promised guaranteed profit. The chance that your color will hit at some point in the long run, however, is, well, 100 percent. That is to say, the probability that you’ll lose every bet goes to zero as the number of rounds increases. This holds even in the more realistic setting where the house enjoys a consistent edge. If there is at least some chance that you’ll win, then you will win eventually because the ball can’t land in the wrong color forever.
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